- Yemen
separatists announce independence referendum. - Southern
Transitional Council leads initiative. - Referendum
seeks formal southern independence.
After recusant forces took control of significant portions
of the country’s south in December, the Southern Transitional Council said that
it would begin a two- time transitional period before establishing an
independent state.
“We announce the commencement of a transitional
phase lasting two years, and the Council calls on the international community
to sponsor dialogue between the concerned parties in the south and the
north,”
STC President Aidaros Alzubidi said in a televised address.
He did, however, issue a warning that the group would
declare independence “immediately” if there was no communication or
if southern Yemen was attacked once more.
Following airstrikes by Saudi Arabia on STC locations in
southeast Yemen, the announcement was made.
A camp in al-Khasah, Hadhramaut, was targeted by airstrikes,
resulting in at least seven fatalities and over twenty injuries.
The attacks coincided
with an offensive by Riyadh-backed forces to retake territory that the STC had
captured in December.
In a lightning-fast and largely unopposed offensive last
month, STC forces took control of vast portions of Yemen’s south, which is
governed by a divided government with conflicting ambitions.
The conflict has revealed the worsening relations between
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two strong Gulf governments and
friends of the United governments.
Ten years ago, both nations made an unprofitable attempt to
drive the Houthi revolutionists from Yemen’s northern region.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have lately
disaccorded over Sudan and Yemen while espousing divergent stations on Israel’s
irruption of Gaza and the new Syrian administration.
Following Israel’s unilateral recognition of the breakaway
Somali portion of Somaliland as an independent state, the STC made its
declaration.
Somaliland and the UAE have strong political and military
connections.
What are the chances the referendum will be recognized
internationally?
The Southern Transitional Council( STC)’s blazoned independence
vote for southern Yemen faces slim chances of transnational recognition due to
its unilateral nature amid ongoing civil war and lack of broader Yemeni
agreement.
The UN recognizes the Presidential Leadership Council( PLC)
government; separatist votes like Crimea( 2014) were abrogated by UN judgments
for violating territorial integrity. UAE tacitly supports STC, but Saudi
Arabia( leadinganti-Houthi coalition) opposes, with recent airstrikes motioning
rejection.
Major powers( US, EU) prioritize Hadi/ PLC legality under
Riyadh Agreement. Precedents like Somaliland show de facto control without
formal status. Success hinges on territorial hold and north- south addresses,
doubtful by 2028 target.
