Summary
- US gold futures surged to a record high after new US tariffs on imported one-kilo gold bars.
- The 39% tariff primarily targets Swiss gold exports and impacts the global bullion market.
- A US Customs reclassification letter triggered the sudden market reaction.
- One-kilo and 100-ounce bars dominate Comex gold trade and Swiss gold shipments to the US.
- President Donald Trump’s wider tariff regime has strained relations with key trade partners.
- Futures touched $3,534.10 an ounce while spot gold climbed above $3,400.
- Analysts warn of major disruptions to Switzerland’s refining industry.
- The move has fueled safe-haven gold demand and expectations of a dovish Fed rate cut.
- CME FedWatch signals a 91% chance of a 25-basis-point rate reduction next month.
- Switzerland is holding emergency talks to seek tariff relief or renegotiation.
The imposition of hefty US tariffs on imported one-kilo gold bars has not only pushed gold prices to historic levels but also reshaped dynamics in the global bullion trade. Market analysts highlight that these measures could have enduring repercussions for Switzerland’s refining industry, investor sentiment, and the broader international commodities market. With futures prices surging and the Federal Reserve facing increased pressure for rate cuts, global markets are now bracing for a new era of volatility driven by trade tensions and safe-haven demand.
Why Did US Gold Futures Reach Record Heights?
As reported by Giulia Petroni of Dow Jones Newswires,
"Gold climbed to a fresh record high on Friday following a report that the US slapped tariffs on imports of one-kilo gold bars, a move that threatens to disrupt the global bullion market. In midday trade, futures rose 1.1% to $3,490.80 a troy ounce after reaching a peak of $3,534.20 earlier in the session."
Reuters’ Editorial Board noted,
"US gold futures for December delivery were up 1.4% at $3,502.90, after hitting an all-time high of $3,534.10. The price spread between New York futures and spot prices expanded by over $100 following a report from the Financial Times on Thursday, which stated that tariffs on 1-kilogram gold bar imports had been enacted."
According to MarketWatch, gold futures jumped $40.40, or 1.1%, to $3,494.40 an ounce, reaching an intraday high of $3,534.20, which takes out the previous April 22 intraday record.
What Is the Scope of the New Tariffs and Who Is Affected?
The Financial Times broke the story, citing a July 31 letter from US Customs and Border Protection that reclassified one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars under customs codes subject to significant tariffs. Switzerland was highlighted as the primary target, being the world's largest gold refining hub. BM Magazine reported, the new tariff forms part of Donald Trump's aggressive trade policy, which imposed a 39% levy on Swiss gold exports among the highest rates in his trade war regime. Only Laos, Myanmar and Syria face higher tariffs, at 40–41%, while the EU and UK have negotiated lower rates of 15% and 10% respectively.
According to the FT, Switzerland exported $61.5bn of gold to the US in the 12 months leading to June; under the new rate, these shipments could now face an additional $24bn in levies.
Bloomberg further noted,
"A US move to put tariffs on imports of one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars is unleashing fresh turmoil in the global bullion market and hitting Switzerland, the world’s largest gold refiner."
How Is Switzerland Responding to These Tariffs?
Deutsche Welle highlighted reactions from Switzerland:
"The Swiss Federal Council convened an emergency meeting... to focus on relief strategies for export-driven Swiss businesses and to keep dialogue open with Washington to reach a resolution."
The Swiss government made moves last year to lower tariffs on nearly all US imports and considered importing US liquefied natural gas, despite logistical challenges, in a bid to improve relations.
As covered by Finews,
"The US has imposed 39 percent tariffs on Swiss goods, including imports of 1-kilogram gold bars. Negotiators will likely reduce the 39% tariff, but Switzerland may have to accept a rate higher than the 27-member EU bloc."
What Are the Immediate Impacts on Markets and Investors?
TradingView’s Editorial Team observed, Gold futures jumped to a fresh high on Friday following a report that the United States has imposed tariffs on imports of one-kilo gold bars, while spot gold was headed for a second straight weekly rise on tariff turmoil and U.S. interest rate-cut hopes... SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.66% to 959.09 metric tons. Spot gold remained stable above $3,389 per ounce; futures for December delivery rose more than 1.6%.
Saxo Markets investor strategist Neil Wilson, quoted by Yahoo Finance, commented, Similar to the copper market, this situation has disrupted the typical dynamic between physical and futures markets... Currently, the London spot price serves as the most dependable indicator of value.
Investing.com added,
"Concerns over U.S. tariffs drove a sharp rise in COMEX gold futures this week, outpacing spot prices as traders sought safe-haven assets amid uncertainty."
What Are Experts Saying About the Policy Shift?
UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo, as quoted by Reuters, explained,
"This change won’t be implemented for a couple of weeks or months, so you can’t dispatch bars immediately. However, you send today, the price will reflect the Swiss London price plus additional tariffs this is the new U.S. price. This has resulted in an increase in the U.S. price premium over London prices, simply because the costs have risen."
According to ANZ analysts cited by Dow Jones, Trump nominated Stephen Miran to fill a vacancy on the Fed's Board of Governors... Miran is the architect of Trump's tariff policy, with the market viewing the appointment as a tilt to a more dovish monetary policy.
Is This Move Linked to the Broader US Trade and Monetary Policy?
The Financial Times reported,
"Donald Trump's higher tariffs on imports from dozens of countries kicked in on Thursday, leaving major trade partners such as Switzerland, Brazil and India hurriedly searching for a better deal."
Multiple outlets point out that weak US payrolls data and global uncertainty, coupled with Trump’s aggressive use of tariffs, have spurred rate-cut bets. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool now shows traders pricing in over a 91% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction at the next Fed meeting.
What Happens Next for International Gold Trade?
Analysts at Capital Economics, as quoted by Deutsche Welle, expect, Negotiators will likely reduce the 39% tariff, but Switzerland may have to accept a rate higher than the EU’s 15%.... Ironically, the 39% tariff may increase global gold demand as more investors seek safe-haven assets during uncertain times.
Swiss Green Party leader Lisa Mazzone has proposed a 5% export duty on precious metals to mitigate the impact. The Swiss Federal Council has kept open the possibility of negotiations and relief for exporters, without resorting to immediate countermeasures.
How Do These Tariffs Affect Consumers and Industries?
Deutsche Welle states, The tariff, which took effect on August 7, 2025, predominantly impacts luxury and consumer products, leading to anticipated price increases in the US for items such as watches, skincare products, cosmetics, precision instruments, and chocolates. Gold, along with pharmaceuticals, is exempt from Trump’s tariffs. However, the Swiss gold refining industry has drawn attention due to its unexpectedly large contribution to the economy.