Key Points
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signals upcoming talks with his Chinese counterpart, raising hopes for progress in US-China trade relations.
- Experts and analysts remain cautious, highlighting significant challenges and the complexity of ongoing negotiations.
- Recent meetings in Geneva and London produced temporary tariff reductions, but underlying disputes persist.
- President Donald Trump intensifies tariff threats, with new deadlines and potential for further escalation.
- Both US and Chinese officials emphasize the importance of de-escalation and cooperation, but mutual trust remains fragile.
- Legal and political hurdles in the US, as well as Chinese concerns about “unilateral bullying,” complicate the path forward.
- Markets react positively to signs of negotiation, but uncertainty about long-term outcomes continues.
- Statements from both sides and expert commentary reflect a mix of optimism and skepticism regarding the prospects for a durable agreement.
As trade tensions between the United States and China continue to shape global economic dynamics, recent remarks by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have drawn cautious optimism from experts, while also underscoring the deep-seated challenges that remain. Bessent’s announcement of planned discussions with his Chinese counterpart comes amid a flurry of diplomatic activity, shifting deadlines, and persistent skepticism from analysts and stakeholders on both sides of the Pacific.
What Did Scott Bessent Say About Upcoming Tariff Discussions with China?
As reported by CNBC and cited by People’s Daily Online, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Monday that he would be meeting his Chinese counterpart within the next two weeks to advance trade discussions between the world’s two largest economies. In an interview with CNBC, Bessent remarked,
“We had good meetings in Geneva, in London. We both approached it with great respect. I think there are things for us to do together if the Chinese want to do it. So we will discuss whether we are able to move beyond trade into other areas”.
Bessent’s remarks were echoed by Bloomberg reports, which noted his openness to expanding cooperation beyond the immediate issues of tariffs and trade. The Treasury Secretary’s comments come at a time when President Donald Trump has intensified pressure on China and other trading partners through new tariff threats and deadlines.
How Have Experts Reacted to Bessent’s Announcements?
According to People’s Daily Online, Chinese experts emphasized that Bessent’s remarks highlight the importance of the economic and trade relationship between China and the US, signaling a potential shift in Washington’s approach to negotiations. Zhou Mi, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told the Global Times that following recent talks in London, both sides had finalized implementation details to carry out the consensus reached by the two heads of state during their June 5 phone call and to consolidate the outcomes of the Geneva talks.
However, as reported by the Atlantic Council, many experts remain cautious. Melanie Hart, for example, argued that “it looks like China has the upper hand in trade talks with the US,” while Josh Lipsky warned that “treating US-China trade like a light switch will cause it to short circuit”. Other analysts, such as Barbara C. Matthews and L. Daniel Mullaney, pointed out that the unpredictability of tariff policy could incentivize third countries to choose sides and reduce US trade dependence on China, respectively.
What Progress Has Been Made in Recent US-China Trade Talks?
As reported by the BBC, significant advancements were made during high-level discussions in Geneva, Switzerland, where Bessent and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng participated in confidential, closed-door negotiations. While Bessent refrained from providing specifics, he indicated that further information would be revealed soon and that President Trump had been briefed on the developments.
President Trump characterized the negotiations as a “total reset” of the bilateral relationship, posting on social media that “GREAT PROGRESS MADE!!!” and emphasizing the desire for China to open its markets to American businesses. The talks resulted in a temporary reduction of US tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%, for a period of 90 days. This reprieve, however, is set to expire in mid-August, with both sides pledging to continue discussions to reach a broader agreement.
Why Are Experts Still Cautious Despite Recent Developments?
As noted by People’s Daily Online, significant challenges remain in the US-China trade relationship, with experts warning that mutual trust is fragile and that both sides must meet halfway to achieve lasting cooperation. The Atlantic Council highlighted that the temporary tariff reductions create incentives for both countries to build new bilateral arrangements with third parties, but also risk abrupt changes if negotiations falter.
Barbara C. Matthews of the Atlantic Council observed that the tariff suspension “creates a powerful incentive for third countries to choose a side,” while Hung Tran warned that the agreement is “overshadowed by the possibility of abrupt change”. The unpredictability of the current environment, combined with ongoing disputes over issues such as export controls and rare earth minerals, means that the path to a comprehensive agreement remains uncertain.
What Are the Main Obstacles to a Lasting US-China Trade Agreement?
As reported by IDN Financials and Yahoo News, Bessent acknowledged that the ongoing tariff negotiations have reached an impasse and suggested that direct talks between President Trump and President Xi Jinping may be necessary to break the deadlock.
“I believe we might at some point have a call between the president and party chair Xi,”
Bessent told Fox News, as quoted by the Financial Times.
Legal and political hurdles in the US further complicate matters. Trump’s tariffs are currently facing legal challenges, with critics claiming he overstepped his authority by imposing widespread import duties without congressional approval. Although Trump has so far avoided legal defeat, the proceedings are ongoing, with the next hearing scheduled for early June, according to the BBC.
On the Chinese side, President Xi has criticized the US for what he described as “unilateral bullying” during a meeting with Latin American leaders at the China-CELAC Forum in Beijing. The recent US-UK tariff agreement has also triggered backlash from China, as the new rules are seen as potentially excluding China from the UK’s supply chain.
How Have Markets and Other Countries Responded to the Latest Developments?
According to the Atlantic Council, the announcement of the 90-day tariff reprieve sent global markets soaring, reflecting optimism about the possibility of de-escalation. However, as reported by Politico and Bloomberg, the Trump administration has threatened to impose tariffs as high as 50% on dozens of trading partners if they do not strike deals by the July 8 deadline, with those that do ink agreements still subject to a baseline rate of 10%.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed plans to finalize deals with ten major trading partners by July 9, while only the United Kingdom has secured preferential treatment so far, with auto tariffs reduced and aerospace duties eliminated. The ongoing negotiations have also impacted discussions with other major economies, including India, Japan, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union.
What Are the Next Steps in US-China Trade Talks?
As reported by Politico, Bessent signaled that the Trump administration’s tariff negotiations with more than a dozen trading partners could stretch until September, despite the previously announced July deadline.
“We have 18 important trading partners — U.K., China are behind us for now — and then Secretary [Howard] Lutnick said yesterday that he expects 10 more deals. So, if we can ink 10 or 12 of the important 18 — there are another important 20 relationships — then I think we could have trade wrapped up by Labor Day,”
Bessent told Fox Business.
President Trump echoed this flexibility, telling reporters,
“We can do whatever we want. We could extend it, we could make it shorter. I’d like to make it shorter. I’d like to just send letters out to everybody: ‘Congratulations, you’re paying 25 percent’”.
How Do Experts View the Broader Impact of US-China Trade Tensions?
As summarized by the Atlantic Council, the ongoing US-China trade conflict has far-reaching implications for the global trading system, with both sides recognizing the need to address longstanding imbalances while avoiding long-term decoupling. The temporary reduction in tariffs is seen as a positive signal, but experts warn that unpredictability and the risk of abrupt policy shifts could undermine stability and confidence in international markets.
Zhou Mi of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation concluded that
“if both sides can meet each halfway and actively seek cooperation, it will not only be beneficial to the two countries but also bring more stability to the global market and have a positive impact on other countries”.
In summary, while Scott Bessent’s remarks and the recent flurry of diplomatic activity offer some hope for progress in US-China trade relations, experts remain cautious. The complexity of the issues, the fragility of mutual trust, and the unpredictability of political and legal developments mean that a durable resolution remains elusive. As negotiations continue, all eyes are on the next round of talks and the potential for direct engagement between President Trump and President Xi — a step many believe is necessary to break the current impasse and chart a path toward lasting stability.