Summary
- Eli Lilly has raised its full-year adjusted profit forecast to $21.75 to $23 per share, up from the previous range of $20.78 to $22.28.
- The company’s weight-loss drug, Zepbound, along with its diabetes treatment counterpart Mounjaro, is driving strong sales growth.
- Zepbound generated $1.24 billion in revenue in the second quarter of 2024, achieving blockbuster status within months of launch.
- Mounjaro sales reached $3.1 billion in Q2 2024, more than tripling compared to the same period last year.
- Eli Lilly is expected to overtake Danish rival Novo Nordisk in the GLP-1 market by 2025, fueled by demand for its dual-action therapies.
- Analysts forecast continued strong growth for Eli Lilly’s weight-loss and diabetes drugs, with sales of Zepbound and Mounjaro expected to soar further in 2025 and 2026.
- Lilly is also pioneering next-generation oral obesity medications, with promising Phase 3 trial results reported for orforglipron.
- Despite optimistic sales forecasts, Eli Lilly's stock experienced some volatility due to concerns about competition and market dynamics.
- Novo Nordisk has lowered its sales guidance amid slower obesity drug uptake and competition from compounded semaglutide alternatives.
- Eli Lilly has made significant investments in manufacturing capacity to meet increasing demand for its treatments.
Eli Lilly, headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, has significantly raised its full-year profit forecast driven by the strong sales performance of its weight-loss drugs, Zepbound and Mounjaro. These blockbuster therapies have not only positioned Eli Lilly as a leading player in the obesity and diabetes treatment market but also sparked optimism about the company's future growth. The company’s substantial investments in manufacturing facilities within Indiana and North Carolina further underscore its commitment to meeting the increasing demand for these treatments across the United States and globally. This strategic positioning consolidates Eli Lilly’s role at the forefront of innovative pharmaceutical development in the U.S. biotech hub.
What Financial Forecast Changes Did Eli Lilly Announce?
As reported by multiple sources including Reuters and CNBC, Eli Lilly raised its full-year adjusted earnings forecast for 2025 to a range of $21.75 to $23 per share, above its earlier guidance of $20.78 to $22.28 per share. This upward revision reflects the strong market reception and sales performance of its weight-loss drug Zepbound and diabetes therapy Mounjaro.
The company also lifted its revenue guidance for 2024 to between $45.4 billion and $46.6 billion, up from a prior range of $42.4 billion to $43.6 billion, signaling robust financial momentum fueled by these blockbuster drugs.
How Are Zepbound and Mounjaro Driving Lilly’s Growth?
Zepbound, Eli Lilly’s weight-loss injection launched in November 2023, earned $1.24 billion in Q2 2024 alone, more than doubling its first-quarter revenue of $517 million and reaching blockbuster status within its first calendar year on the market. Mounjaro, which shares the same active ingredient as Zepbound, generated $3.1 billion in Q2 sales, a significant leap from $979.7 million recorded in the same quarter the previous year.
Sara Reci, managing analyst at GlobalData, noted to Pharmaceutical Technology that despite competition from Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, Eli Lilly is rapidly closing the market gap thanks to these therapies.
Further supporting this growth narrative, UBS analyst Trung Huynh indicated that Eli Lilly captures about two-thirds of new patients beginning treatment with Zepbound, bolstered by recent study results showing better weight-loss outcomes with Zepbound compared to Wegovy.
What Is the Competitive Landscape Between Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk?
The weight-loss and diabetes drug market, dominated by GLP-1 medications, has been a fierce competition primarily between Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound and Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic. According to Visible Alpha estimates reported by S&P Global, Eli Lilly is on track to surpass Novo Nordisk in this sector by 2025 due to soaring demand for its dual-action drugs.
Novo Nordisk, the pioneer with earlier approvals for Wegovy and Ozempic, has faced challenges such as supply bottlenecks, increased usage of compounded semaglutide, and trial disappointments for next-gen drugs like CagriSema. These issues have led to lowered sales growth forecasts and a substantial drop in its stock price.
By contrast, Lilly’s growth trajectory appears stronger, with analysts predicting Mounjaro sales to increase by 60% year-over-year to $18.4 billion in 2025, and Zepbound sales expected to more than double from $4.9 billion in 2024 to $12.5 billion in 2025, growing further in subsequent years.
How Is Lilly Innovating With New Weight-Loss Treatments?
Eli Lilly is not resting on current successes. The company is pioneering next-generation oral weight-loss medications, exemplified by the promising Phase 3 clinical trial results of orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 treatment. This medication demonstrated statistically significant weight-loss efficacy and a safety profile comparable to injectable GLP-1 drugs.
The company plans to seek FDA approval for orforglipron by 2026, expanding its product portfolio and reinforcing its leadership in obesity treatment.
Ken Custer, Lilly’s executive vice president overseeing cardiometabolic health, highlighted the company's strategy to dominate the anti-obesity market by 2030, with Lilly's drugs expected to capture nearly 50% of the $95 billion market by then.
What Are the Market Reactions and Stock Performance?
Following the announcement of strong sales and higher profit guidance, Eli Lilly’s shares initially jumped by nearly 12% but experienced some midday volatility in August 2024. Earlier in 2025, shares surged 16% after promising oral weight-loss drug trial results were reported.
However, concerns linger among investors about potential pricing pressures if Novo Nordisk aggressively cuts prices or if the obesity drug market growth slows unexpectedly. Despite these concerns, Lilly's market value had surpassed $700 billion, making it the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical company as of mid-2024.
What Investments Is Eli Lilly Making to Meet Demand?
Eli Lilly has aggressively invested in expanding manufacturing capabilities to keep pace with the high demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound. In 2024, the company committed an additional $5.3 billion to a production facility in Indiana dedicated to tirzepatide (the active ingredient in both drugs) and planned the opening of a new plant in North Carolina by year-end.
Additionally, Lilly started offering higher-dose versions of Zepbound directly to consumers via its website, broadening accessibility and convenience for patients.
Eli Lilly’s combination of robust sales, strategic investments, innovative drug development, and market positioning is reshaping the landscape of obesity and diabetes treatment, positioning it to overtake established rivals by the mid-2020s and dominate the market for years to come. The company's strong forecast revisions and promising pipeline underscore the growing importance and financial potential of weight-loss therapies in the global pharmaceutical industry.