The consumer sentiment
index for November 2025 was 50.3, about three points below forecasts, down from
53.6 in October, indicating a 6% decline in consumer sentiment. A Wall Street
Journal survey of economists predicted an index reading of 53.0.
The monthly indicator of
consumer mood was previously this low in June 2022, at 50.0, amid inflation
during the Covid epidemic. The index’s most recent reading is the lowest it has
been since at least 1978.
“With the federal
government shutdown dragging on for over a month, consumers are now expressing
worries about potential negative consequences for the economy,”
said Joanne Hsu, director
of the survey, in a statement.
The results come amid a
blackout on federal data, such as the monthly jobs report, which was expected
on Friday, with the typical schedule of monthly reports stopped owing to the
government shutdown. Investors have been using smaller, privately funded
research reports in their place.
The largest payroll
provider in the US, ADP, said this week that private firms created 42,000 new
jobs in October, which was better than anticipated but still a sharp decline
from the three-month moving average of 188,000 positions from November to
January.
Challenger, Gray &
Christmas, an executive coaching and outplacement agency, reported on Thursday
that US-based companies announced 153,074 job cutbacks in October, a 175%
increase over the 55,597 cuts made in October 2024. For any October since 2003,
it had the biggest number of layoffs.
“Americans are losing faith
in the economy because they’re losing ground. Every day it becomes clearer that
President Trump has no real interest in improving the lives of American
families,”
said Alex Jacquez, chief of
policy and advocacy at the thinktank Groundwork Collaborative, in a statement
on the Michigan survey report.
“His economic mismanagement
has left households buried under record debt and rising prices. It’s no surprise
consumer sentiment is at its lowest point since 2022 and households are turning
to leaders who didn’t just learn the word ‘affordability’.”
How will low consumer sentiment affect holiday retail sales this
year?
Retail deals growth is projected to decelerate vastly, with
vaticinations around 4 growth in November- December 2025, well below the decade
normal of 5.2 and lower than last time’s 8.7 swell in online deals.
Consumers are anticipated to be more conservative and
value-conscious, prioritizing essential and quality purchases over optional or
luxuriant particulars, particularly in sectors like vesture, home goods, and
electronics. Middle and lower- income homes are likely to reduce spending
noticeably due to affectation, tariffs, and advanced living costs, while
advanced- income consumers with stock request earnings may sustain or slightly
increase their spending.
Retailers may face challenges balancing pricing strategies amid
affectation and tariffs that squeeze profit perimeters and influence consumer
budgets. Discounting is anticipated to remain a crucial tactic, but shoppers
are decreasingly seeking value and meaningful brand gests rather than just low
prices.
