The consumer sentiment index for November 2025 was 50.3, about three points below forecasts, down from 53.6 in October, indicating a 6% decline in consumer sentiment. A Wall Street Journal survey of economists predicted an index reading of 53.0.
The monthly indicator of consumer mood was previously this low in June 2022, at 50.0, amid inflation during the Covid epidemic. The index's most recent reading is the lowest it has been since at least 1978.
“With the federal government shutdown dragging on for over a month, consumers are now expressing worries about potential negative consequences for the economy,”
said Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, in a statement.
The results come amid a blackout on federal data, such as the monthly jobs report, which was expected on Friday, with the typical schedule of monthly reports stopped owing to the government shutdown. Investors have been using smaller, privately funded research reports in their place.
The largest payroll provider in the US, ADP, said this week that private firms created 42,000 new jobs in October, which was better than anticipated but still a sharp decline from the three-month moving average of 188,000 positions from November to January.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an executive coaching and outplacement agency, reported on Thursday that US-based companies announced 153,074 job cutbacks in October, a 175% increase over the 55,597 cuts made in October 2024. For any October since 2003, it had the biggest number of layoffs.
“Americans are losing faith in the economy because they’re losing ground. Every day it becomes clearer that President Trump has no real interest in improving the lives of American families,”
said Alex Jacquez, chief of policy and advocacy at the thinktank Groundwork Collaborative, in a statement on the Michigan survey report.
“His economic mismanagement has left households buried under record debt and rising prices. It’s no surprise consumer sentiment is at its lowest point since 2022 and households are turning to leaders who didn’t just learn the word ‘affordability’.”
How will low consumer sentiment affect holiday retail sales this year?
Retail deals growth is projected to decelerate vastly, with vaticinations around 4 growth in November- December 2025, well below the decade normal of 5.2 and lower than last time's 8.7 swell in online deals.
Consumers are anticipated to be more conservative and value-conscious, prioritizing essential and quality purchases over optional or luxuriant particulars, particularly in sectors like vesture, home goods, and electronics. Middle and lower- income homes are likely to reduce spending noticeably due to affectation, tariffs, and advanced living costs, while advanced- income consumers with stock request earnings may sustain or slightly increase their spending.
Retailers may face challenges balancing pricing strategies amid affectation and tariffs that squeeze profit perimeters and influence consumer budgets. Discounting is anticipated to remain a crucial tactic, but shoppers are decreasingly seeking value and meaningful brand gests rather than just low prices.