Summary
- Democrats aim to take Senate control in 2026 midterms.
- Target competitive races plus a few long-shot bids.
- Key battlegrounds include Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Texas.
- Republicans face challenges in some traditionally safe seats.
In 2026, more than one-third of the Senate's seats will be up for election; Republicans will be vying for 24 seats, while Democrats will be defending 13. However, given that many of the Republicans running for reelection come from states that President Trump won well in 2024, the map presents little chances for Democrats to change seats. Meanwhile, the GOP may have opportunities as a result of the retirement of three Senate Democrats who are running for reelection in 2026.
Democrats would have to protect seats in several challenging areas and flip four seats to gain a majority in the upper chamber, which currently has 53 Republicans.
With controversial primary contests in several states and up-and-coming candidates in a few free Senate seats, the major contests that will probably decide who controls the Senate after 2026 are starting to take shape.
While Texas is hosting a fierce GOP primary campaign that Democrats hope would work in their favor, North Carolina is anticipated to host the most costly contest.
North Carolina has generally supported Republicans in every presidential election, with the exception of Barack Obama in 2008, the last time the state elected a Democrat to the Senate. President Trump won the state by more than three points in 2024.
Cooper, the longest-serving state attorney general in North Carolina history and a two-term governor, declared his intention to run for the Senate in July.
Days after Cooper entered the race, Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley declared his intention to run for the vacant seat, intensifying the competition and setting the stage for what is predicted to be one of the most costly contests of the cycle.
Despite never having run for government, Whatley was instrumental in Mr. Trump's reelection campaign. He's relying on his conservative knowledge, the president's support, and the relationships he's built as RNC head.
Sen. Jon Ossoff, who is running for a second term in the Senate after barely winning the 2020 election when the Georgia race went to a runoff, is widely considered the most vulnerable Democrat this election cycle.
In addition to Joe Biden becoming the first Democrat to win Georgia in a presidential election since 1992, Ossoff's slim victory guaranteed a Democratic majority in the Senate. Ossoff is the only incumbent Democrat this cycle defending a district the president won in the last election, however, as Georgia switched again in 2024 in favor of Mr. Trump.
A crucial seat in the battleground state, which has seen presidential contests swing from President Trump in 2016 to former President Joe Biden in 2020 and back to Mr. Trump in 2024, became available when Democratic Sen. Gary Peters unexpectedly announced in January that he would not run for reelection in 2026.
With a crowded primary already under way, Democrats are selecting from a large talent pool without the advantage that an incumbent typically offers. Pete Buttigieg, the Transportation Secretary under the Biden administration, thought about running for office but decided against it earlier this year. Rep. Haley Stevens, state senator Mallory McMorrow, and former Michigan health official Abdul El-Sayed are among the Democrats who have entered the campaign thus far.
The 55-year-old Ernst, who was elected to the Senate in 2014, has faced criticism from Democrats for remarks she made on Medicaid cuts, and the Republican base has blasted her for her initial hesitation to back the confirmation of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
State Representative Josh Turek, State Senator Zach Wahls, and Nathan Sage, executive director of the Knoxville Chamber of Commerce, are all competing for the Democratic nomination, making the field crowded. Earlier this month, state representative J.D. Scholten, who had also started a campaign, bowed out and backed Turek as the Democratic Party's best option to defeat Ernst.
The union leader is running against GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts in 2026 after an unexpectedly close contest the previous year in which he defeated Harris by a wide margin. However, it is anticipated that Republicans would be more equipped to face the challenge in the deeply red state this time.
After former Senator Ben Sasse retired, Ricketts, one of the wealthiest members of Congress, was appointed to the Senate in 2023. He easily defeated Sasse in a special election last year to complete the final two years of Sasse's tenure.
What factors made Ohio and Nevada particularly vulnerable for Democrats?
Ohio's political identity has increasingly leaned toward the Republican Party over the past couple election cycles, setting a stark contrast from its history of being a bellwether state that closely followed the national decisions being made across the country. Currently the balance of partisanship in Ohio favors Republicans, creating avenues for Republican candidates to win Ohio and lose nationally, as witnessed in 2020.
The Democrats have struggled to rekindle the connections with working-class voters, particularly in rural areas as well as those affected by the decline of the industrial economy, who are trending toward the full support of Republicans.
The share of voters identifying as Democrats in Ohio has declined, while the share of declared independent and Republican voters has grown.