Summary
- Beto O'Rourke leads early Texas Senate Democratic primary poll.
- Poll shows 27% support despite no official candidacy announcement.
- Close behind him: U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett with 26%.
- Declared candidates Colin Allred and James Talarico lag far behind.
Many Texans are still unsure of their vote's outcome in the fiercely disputed U.S. Senate race, with the 2026 midterm primary less than six months away.
According to a recent survey by the independent Texas Public Opinion Research, the majority of Texas voters are still unsure or are supporting candidates who have not yet entered the race.
Between August 27 and August 29, 843 Texas voters participated in the survey.
With 27% of respondents giving former congressman and gubernatorial candidate Beto O'Rourke high marks, Texas Democrats are hoping he would enter the race. U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Dallas, came in second with 26% of respondents.
Despite not having formally entered the Senate race, they both scored much higher than the two contenders vying for the Democratic nomination: state Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, who only received 7% of the vote, and former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, who lost his attempt to unseat U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz two years ago, who received 13%.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton trailed incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) by 32% to 26% on the Republican ticket. For the first time, the poll shows Cornyn leading Paxton by several percentage points.
Nevertheless, a large percentage of voters 29% of Republicans and 18% of Democrats remain unsure.
What impact would O'Rourke or Crockett have on the Democratic primary field?
Although the two have yet to confirm their candidacies publicly, O'Rourke is leading at 27% and Crockett closely trailing at 26% in hypothetical primary polls, far ahead of candidates that have confirmed their candidacies.
O'Rourke and Crockett's name recognition and established political identities make this unfavorable for lesser-known candidates, such as Colin Allred and James Talarico, who trail in support.
O'Rourke, who came close to defeating Ted Cruz in 2018, is a very popular and viable candidate appealing to many demographics of the Democratic base.
Crockett has established a great reputation as a fighter on progressive issues and is likely well positioned to mobilize the Democratic electorate.