- President Trump enacted key 2024 campaign economic promises through the July 2025 tax and spending reconciliation bill, extending 2017 tax cuts and eliminating taxes on tipped wages.
- High tariffs imposed since April 2025, termed "Liberation Day," did not boost manufacturing jobs, with monthly employment declines amid rising consumer prices.
- Unemployment rose to 4.6% in 2025, persistent inflation continues, contrasting with projected $30-100 billion tax refunds supporting 2-3% growth forecasts for 2026.
- Campaign pledges to end inflation and revive manufacturing fell short, as prices keep rising without focus on housing or childcare costs.
- Administration highlights investments and job creation, though polls show sliding support as voters report no felt financial improvements one year on.
Washington (Washington Insider Megazines) – 22 January 2026 – President Donald Trump fulfilled key 2024 campaign economic pledges through the July 2025 tax and spending reconciliation bill, extending 2017 tax cuts and eliminating taxes on tipped wages. High tariffs imposed since April 2025, dubbed "Liberation Day," failed to boost manufacturing jobs, with employment declining monthly amid rising consumer prices. Unemployment reached 4.6% in 2025, inflation persists, yet tax refunds are projected at $30-100 billion in early 2026, supporting growth forecasts of 2-3%.
Trump signed the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" on 4 July 2025, advancing Republican priorities via reconciliation. The legislation extended individual and corporate tax cuts from his first term and exempted tipped income from federal taxes. Administration officials report $158 billion in tariff revenues for 2025, with $31 billion in August alone.
Tax Cuts and Refunds Deliver Short-Term Boost
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Taxpayers anticipate larger refunds in the first half of 2026 due to withholding adjustments from the new bill. Economists estimate an aggregate stimulus of $30-100 billion, alongside incentives for business investments in plants and equipment. Bloomberg economists project this will sustain economic expansion into 2026, aided by lower borrowing costs.
The Council of Economic Advisers forecasts real GDP growth 4.6-4.9% above baseline, equating to 1.1-1.2 additional annual percentage points. Real investment could rise 7.3-10.2%, protecting or creating 6.9-7.2 million full-time jobs, while reducing deficits by up to $11.1 trillion dynamically. The White House touts over $5 trillion in new private and foreign investments in the first 100 days, generating 450,000 jobs.
Tariffs Fail to Revive Manufacturing as Promised
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Trump announced sweeping tariffs in April 2025 as "Liberation Day," claiming they would bring jobs and factories roaring back. Manufacturing employment declined every month through 2025. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose following the announcement, contradicting Trump's December 2025 claim that "inflation has stopped."
The New York Times reported tariffs did not spark the pledged manufacturing revival and added to household costs without the anticipated inflationary spike. Households face $1,300-2,100 extra annual expenses from tariffs, deregulation, and inflation. Targeted sectors saw 2.7% employment reduction due to automation and retaliatory measures.
Unemployment Rises Amid Labour Market Weakness
Unemployment climbed to 4.6% in 2025, with economists expecting stabilisation around 4.5% in 2026 alongside job growth. The Federal Reserve noted weakening labour demand and supply, considering December 2025 rate cuts. Wall Street Journal economists raised 2026 growth outlook despite initial tariff shocks slashing 2025 projections from over 2% to 0.8%.
Stock market gained 16% in 2025, reflecting steady performance. Consumer spending remains strong, with low unemployment earlier in the year, though inflation stays stubbornly high but improving.
Campaign Promises on Prices Fall Short
Trump campaigned on ending inflation and slashing prices on Day One. One year in, prices continue rising, with no focus on housing or childcare costs. He extended ACA subsidies for affordability but prioritised tariffs over cost-of-living relief.
USA Today noted Trump largely fell short on lowering prices, as statistics show persistent increases. Surveys indicate voters do not feel promised improvements despite administration claims of reversing "Biden stagflation."
Broader Policy Shifts and Uncertainties
Trump reduced Federal Reserve autonomy, dismissed the Bureau of Labor Statistics head, and cut university research funding. He engaged in private business, bought company shares, and threatened non-compliant CEOs. Stringent immigration curbs, alliance questioning, and tariffs on allies/adversaries marked the approach.
Supreme Court ruling on tariffs could disrupt revenues and refunds. Wharton projected $5.8 trillion primary deficit increase over 10 years conventionally, $4.1 trillion dynamically, with falling hours worked, capital, and GDP.
Administration Touts Gains Despite Polling Slide
White House highlights economic successes one year into the term. Polls show sliding support as economic narrative fails to resonate. Trump predicted the "largest tax refund season of all time" for 2026.
CPAC lists fulfilled "America First" mandates, including investments and jobs. NJ.com reports many yet to feel drastic financial improvements promised.