Summary
- Former US intelligence officials warn US moving toward authoritarianism.
- Democratic backsliding accelerating under Trump administration’s policies.
- Concerns include erosion of civil liberties and executive overreach.
The Steady State, a network of over 340 former CIA, NSA, State Department, and other national-security agency officers, released the research on Thursday under the title Accelerating Authoritarian Dynamics: Assessment of Democratic Decline.
The authors conclude with "moderate to high confidence" that the United States is heading toward what academics refer to as "competitive authoritarianism," a system in which courts and elections are still in place but are "systematically manipulated" to strengthen checks and balances and consolidate executive power. The report claims that these patterns are becoming more apparent in the US as part of Donald Trump's larger initiative to "ensure loyalty and ideological conformity" throughout the federal government during his second term.
To conduct the assessment, the authors applied the same analytic methods used by US intelligence agencies to assess the fragility of democracies abroad but turned them inward for what the group called a “first-of-its-kind” analysis of domestic democratic decline.
“We wrote it because the same tools we once used to assess foreign risks now show unmistakable warning signs at home,”
the authors said in a statement.
The president has publicly urged his attorney general to prosecute political opponents, deployed troops to US cities, attacked judges who ruled against him, threatened universities, and restricted press freedom since he returned to the White House. He has also pardoned rioters who attacked police on January 6, fired independent watchdogs, purged career officials who were thought to be disloyal, and tested the limits of executive power in ways that federal courts have repeatedly ruled are illegal and unconstitutional.
Last week, Trump's justice department separately accused former FBI director James Comey, a longstanding political rival, and indicted Letitia James, the attorney general of New York who successfully sued him for fraud.
Although the report reflects the US intelligence community's "finished intelligence" model, the authors stress that this analysis was carried out by private individuals and only used publicly available sources, such as news reports, statements made by the public, and independent watchdog analyses, rather than classified intelligence.
A weakened and increasingly ineffectual Congress; partisan manipulation of electoral systems and administration; the purposeful undermining of civil society, the press, and public trust; attempts to undermine judicial independence through strategic appointments and "noncompliance" with court rulings or investigations; the expansion of executive power through unilateral decrees and emergency authorities; and the politicization of the federal law enforcement and civil service are some of the major indicators of democratic decline noted in the report.
“We judge that the primary driver of the US’s increasing authoritarianism is the increased frequency of Executive Branch overreach,”
the assessment states. It also cites a “worrying” shift in public opinion among Americans, pointing to surveys that show a growing share who think “having a strong leader who does not have to bother with parliament or elections” is a “very good or fairly good system”.
Scholars of democracy and other assessments concur with the report's conclusions. Expert and public evaluations of US democracy have fallen to their lowest levels since 2017, according to a Bright Line Watch study conducted in September. The population gave American democracy a score of merely 49 on a scale of 0 to 100, while specialists gave it a score of 54.
Comparing the US to nations like Hungary or Turkey, where elected presidents maintained power by undermining institutional balances while maintaining a democratic façade, has become more common among political scientists and human rights advocates.
“Absent organized resistance by institutions, civil society, and the public, the United States is likely to continue along a path of accelerating democratic erosion,”
the Steady State report concludes, “risking further consolidation of executive dominance and a loss of credibility as a model of democracy abroad”.
What interventions or civic actions do the authors advocate for reducing entrenchment?
Bolster the independence and efficacy of the courts, the legislature, and the investigative and oversight entities to effectively minimize abuse of power by the executive. Safeguard freedom of expression, freedom of assembly, and diverse outlets of media to enhance public participation and dissent.
Certify that elections are fair when they are transparent, inclusive, and accessible, to protect against voter suppression, gerrymandering, and other threats to the integrity of elections. Examine reforms to entrench democracy, including restrictions on the use of vetoes or the ability of supermajorities as a way to halt anti-democratic measures.
Develop systems of transparency and accountability for public officials and campaign finance.