- Democrats dominated recent off-year elections.
- Tennessee congressional race draws national attention.
- Seen as test for blue wave momentum.
A month ago, the nation slightly paid attention to the special election listed for Tuesday, December 2, to replace departed Democratic Representative Mark Green.
Now, the battle between Democrat Aftyn Behn, a 36- years-old liberal state representative, and Democratic Matt Van Epps, a combat stager, has Egalitarians featuring in an unanticipated House volley. To try to forestall a catastrophe, prominent Republicans, including President Donald Trump, are circling the carts and contributing millions of dollars.
Tennessee's 7th congressional quarter was no way intended to be competitive. It's the product of Tennessee's Democratic- controlled council, which set its lines in 2022 by separating Democrat-fort Nashville into three sections, each dominated by conservative pastoral counties and colorful Middle Tennessee cities. One was District 7, which encompasses the corridor of Nashville's Davidson County and 13 other counties.
Trump won Tennessee's congressional District 7 by 22 percentage points over Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. But both Democrats and Republicans are ready for a tough race next week. A poll by Emerson College Polling/The Hill had Van Epps winning by only 2 percentage points, 48% to 46%, inside the survey's margin of error.
"It's a sign of just how far the Republican Party has fallen and how much trouble they're in, not only in this election, but as we head into the midterms next year,"
Democratic campaign strategist Simon Rosenberg said.
"This is a weakened and struggling political party."
Many saw the Nov. 4 off-year election, in which Democrats won handily in Virginia, New Jersey, New York, and other states, as a rejection of Trump and his policies about inflation and the economy. Trump's approval rating has since slipped to a second-term low 36%, according to a Gallup poll issued Nov. 28.
The primary Trump-affiliated PAC, MAGA Inc., has spent over $1 million to support Van Epps in reaction to a closer-than-anticipated contest; millions more have come from PACs affiliated with the Club for Growth and other conservative organizations. Last Monday, the House Majority PAC, which is supported by Democrats, abandoned a $1 million advertising campaign.
Nathan Gonzales, who runs the nonpartisan election handicapping service Inside Elections, said it’s likely that the Behn overperforms but doubtful that she wins based on how Democrats have done in other elections this year and the margin that Trump swept the district.
Indeed a narrow loss, still, would encourage Democrats and show that the GOP is changing it delicately to replicate Trump's probabilities without him on the ballot.
According to Rosenberg, a 10-point electoral change in favor of Democrats could not only give Democrats control of the House but also pave the way for them to retake the Senate, which had previously been thought unattainable.
Which demographics shifted toward Democrats in recent Tennessee specials?
In Tennessee's 7th Congressional District special election( November 2025), young voters and suburban residents showed notable shifts toward Egalitarians, contributing to the race's competitiveness in a Trump 22 quarter from 2024. Young voters swung back to Egalitarians due to enterprises over job failure, AI job relegation, affordability, and unborn profitable instability, outperforming previous turnout patterns.
Suburban areas like Williamson County historically Democratic fortresses affected by gerrymandering displayed frustration with state GOP programs, leading to a 10- point rightward GOP shift since 2016 decelerating or reversing amid broader off- time Popular earnings (8- 9 points nationally).
Rich, educated voters in Montgomery/ Davidson counties favored Democrat Aftyn Behn, mirroring public trends where high- provocation, council- educated demographics boosted Dems 59- 37.