Key Points
- Donald
Trump’s 2024 victory was fueled by a more racially and ethnically diverse
coalition than in 2020 or 2016. - Trump
retained 85% of his 2020 voters, while Kamala Harris kept 79% of Joe
Biden’s 2020 supporters. - Trump
made significant gains among Hispanic, Black, and Asian voters, narrowing
the Democratic advantage in these groups. - Hispanic
support for Democrats declined, with Trump nearly matching Harris among
Latino voters (48% Trump, 51% Harris). - Trump’s
support among Black voters rose from 8% in 2020 to 15% in 2024. - Asian
voter support for Trump increased from 30% in 2020 to 40% in 2024. - The
GOP’s coalition in 2024 was 20% nonwhite, double the share from 2016. - Trump
erased the Democratic advantage with non-U.S.-born voters, closing a
21-point gap from 2020. - Young
and millennial voters, especially men, shifted toward Trump, while more
young Democrats stayed home. - Trump
won the Electoral College 312 to 226 and the popular vote by over 2
million. - Voter
turnout differences, not just party switching, were decisive in the
outcome. - Many
familiar divides—urban-rural, education, and religious attendance—remained
evident in 2024.
Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential victory was propelled by a
coalition of voters more racially and ethnically diverse than in any of his
previous campaigns, according to a comprehensive Pew Research Center report
released Thursday. The analysis, based on validated voter records and extensive
survey data, reveals that Trump’s inroads among Hispanic, Black, and Asian
voters, combined with high turnout among his supporters and a drop-off among
Democrats, were pivotal in securing his win over Kamala Harris.
How Did Trump Build a More Diverse Coalition in 2024?
As reported by Max Greenwood of The Hill, Pew’s analysts
found that “overall, voting trends among demographic categories in the 2024
presidential election were not significantly different from those in 2020 and
2016. However, Donald Trump’s advancements among several critical voter groups
were pivotal to his success in 2024”.
According to Pew’s in-depth study, Trump’s coalition in 2024
included a higher share of Hispanic, Black, and Asian voters than in his
earlier campaigns. The report states,
“Donald Trump’s voter base in 2024 was
more racially and ethnically diverse than in his previous campaigns, showcasing
gains among Hispanic, Black, and Asian demographics”.
Tony Fabrizio, Trump’s 2024 campaign pollster, told The New
York Times,
“We talked about getting Blacks and getting Hispanics and
low-propensity voters. Everyone looked at us like we had three heads and we
were crazy. This Pew report basically says, ‘Yeah, we did it’”.
What Were the Key Demographic Shifts That Helped Trump Win?
According to the Pew study, Trump’s gains among minority
voters were substantial:
- Hispanic
Voters: Trump nearly matched Harris among Hispanic voters, losing by only
three points (51% Harris, 48% Trump), a sharp contrast to Biden’s 25-point
advantage in 2020. The shift was particularly strong among Hispanic men,
with Trump flipping the group to win 50% of their vote, after Biden had
won 57% in 2020. - Black
Voters: Trump’s support among Black voters almost doubled, rising from 8%
in 2020 to 15% in 2024. Pew attributed this to turnout dynamics, noting,
“The increased proportion of Black voters who supported Trump was not due
to a change in individual preferences, but rather shifts in who
participated in the election”. - Asian
Voters: Trump’s share of Asian voters rose from 30% in 2020 to 40% in
2024, while Harris’s support among Asians (57%) was notably lower than
Biden’s 70% in 2020. - Non-U.S.-Born
Voters: Trump erased the Democrats’ 21-point advantage with non-U.S.-born
voters from 2020, splitting the group nearly evenly with Harris in 2024.
How Did Voter Turnout and Loyalty Impact the Election?
As noted by CNN’s Harry Enten, Pew’s analysis showed that
85% of Trump’s 2020 voters returned to vote for him in 2024, compared to 79% of
Biden’s 2020 voters who supported Harris. Additionally, 5% of Biden’s voters
switched to Trump, while only 3% of Trump’s 2020 voters backed Harris.
A significant factor was that 15% of Biden’s 2020 voters did
not return to vote in 2024. According to Pew,
“Trump benefited from higher
turnout among those who voted for him in 2020. He also held an edge over Harris
among voters who did not vote four years earlier—a group that was considerably
more diverse than those who voted in both elections”.
Did Party-Switching or Turnout Matter More?
As analyzed by Nate Cohn of The New York Times, the
narrative that Harris lost due to low turnout in Democratic strongholds is only
partially accurate. Cohn writes,
“Recent data, derived from credible voter
turnout statistics, implies that President Trump could have potentially
performed even better had every eligible voter cast their ballot”.
Pew’s findings indicate that while a small share of voters
switched parties, differential turnout was more decisive. “Republican-leaning
eligible voters simply were more likely to turn out than Democratic-leaning
eligible voters in 2024,” Pew researchers wrote.
How Did Traditional Voting Divides Hold Up in 2024?
Despite Trump’s gains among minorities, many familiar
divides persisted:
- Education:
Trump maintained a strong lead among voters without four-year college
degrees, with a 14-point advantage (56% to 42%), double his 2016 margin.
Harris won college-educated voters 57% to 41%, but this was a smaller
margin than Biden’s in 2020. - Urban-Rural:
Trump’s rural margin grew to 40 points (69% to 29%), while Harris’s urban
margin was nearly as large (65% to 33%). - Religious
Attendance: Nearly two-thirds of frequent religious service attendees
(64%) voted for Trump, while Harris led among less frequent attendees (56%
to 43%).
What Role Did Young and Millennial Voters Play?
Trump also made gains among young and millennial voters.
According to the Pew report, “Republicans born in the 1990s and 2000s showed up
for him while more young Democrat voters stayed home”. He gained votes among
millennials (those born in the 1980s), with most of that support coming from
people who flipped from Biden to Trump.
How Did the 2024 Election Compare to Previous Cycles?
Pew’s analysis concluded that
“voting patterns among many
demographic groups in 2024 were similar to those in 2020 and 2016, but Trump
made gains among several key groups of voters that proved decisive in his 2024
victory”.
The GOP’s coalition in 2024 was 20% nonwhite, double the
share from 2016, reflecting a significant demographic shift. However, the share
of Trump’s white voters dropped to 78% in 2024, from 88% in 2016.
Despite these changes, “significant disparities remain in
the composition of the partisan coalitions,” Pew analysts noted.
What Methodology Did Pew Use for This Analysis?
Pew’s findings are based on a panel survey of 8,942
validated voters, using the American Trends Panel (ATP), which interviews the
same respondents after each national election since 2016. This approach allows
for a detailed examination of how individual turnout and preferences change
over time.
What Does This Mean for Future Elections?
The 2024 election results challenge long-held assumptions
about the relationship between turnout and party advantage. As reported by The
New York Times, “For decades, the belief that Democrats gain from high voter
turnout has shaped the strategies and aspirations of both political parties…
The data effectively settles the question of whether Ms. Harris’s defeat
stemmed from alienating swing voters or from her inability to galvanize her
core supporters”.
Pew’s study suggests that Trump’s unique brand of
conservative populism and his appeal to disengaged voters have eroded the
Democrats’ longstanding advantage among younger and nonwhite voters.
In summary, Donald Trump’s 2024 victory was the result of a
more diverse coalition, higher loyalty among his past voters, and crucial gains
among key demographic groups. The Pew Research Center’s authoritative analysis
underscores that turnout differences—not just party switching—were decisive,
and that the GOP’s coalition is undergoing significant demographic change.
