Summary
- Former
US intelligence officials warn US moving toward authoritarianism. - Democratic
backsliding accelerating under Trump administration’s policies. - Concerns
include erosion of civil liberties and executive overreach.
The Steady State, a network of over 340 former CIA, NSA,
State Department, and other national-security agency officers, released the
research on Thursday under the title Accelerating Authoritarian Dynamics: Assessment
of Democratic Decline.
The authors conclude with “moderate to high
confidence” that the United States is heading toward what academics refer
to as “competitive authoritarianism,” a system in which courts and
elections are still in place but are “systematically manipulated” to
strengthen checks and balances and consolidate executive power. The report
claims that these patterns are becoming more apparent in the US as part of
Donald Trump‘s larger initiative to “ensure loyalty and ideological
conformity” throughout the federal government during his second term.
To conduct the assessment, the authors applied the same
analytic methods used by US intelligence agencies to assess the fragility of
democracies abroad but turned them inward for what the group called a
“first-of-its-kind” analysis of domestic democratic decline.
“We wrote it because the same tools we once used to assess
foreign risks now show unmistakable warning signs at home,”
the authors said in
a statement.
The president has publicly urged
his attorney general to prosecute political opponents, deployed troops to US
cities, attacked judges who ruled against him, threatened universities, and restricted
press freedom since he returned to the White House. He has also pardoned
rioters who attacked police on January 6, fired independent watchdogs, purged
career officials who were thought to be disloyal, and tested the limits of
executive power in ways that federal courts have repeatedly ruled are illegal
and unconstitutional.
Last week, Trump’s justice department separately accused
former FBI director James Comey, a longstanding political rival, and indicted
Letitia James, the attorney general of New York who successfully sued him for
fraud.
Although the report reflects the US intelligence community’s
“finished intelligence” model, the authors stress that this analysis
was carried out by private individuals and only used publicly available sources,
such as news reports, statements made by the public, and independent watchdog
analyses, rather than classified intelligence.
A weakened and increasingly ineffectual Congress; partisan
manipulation of electoral systems and administration; the purposeful
undermining of civil society, the press, and public trust; attempts to
undermine judicial independence through strategic appointments and
“noncompliance” with court rulings or investigations; the expansion
of executive power through unilateral decrees and emergency authorities; and
the politicization of the federal law enforcement and civil service are some of
the major indicators of democratic decline noted in the report.
“We judge that the primary driver of the US’s increasing
authoritarianism is the increased frequency of Executive Branch overreach,”
the
assessment states. It also cites a “worrying” shift in public opinion among
Americans, pointing to surveys that show a growing share who think “having a
strong leader who does not have to bother with parliament or elections” is a
“very good or fairly good system”.
Scholars of democracy and other assessments concur with the
report’s conclusions. Expert and public evaluations of US democracy have fallen
to their lowest levels since 2017, according to a Bright Line Watch study
conducted in September. The population gave American democracy a score of
merely 49 on a scale of 0 to 100, while specialists gave it a score of 54.
Comparing the US to nations like Hungary or Turkey, where
elected presidents maintained power by undermining institutional balances while
maintaining a democratic façade, has become more common among political
scientists and human rights advocates.
“Absent organized resistance by institutions, civil society,
and the public, the United States is likely to continue along a path of
accelerating democratic erosion,”
the Steady State report concludes, “risking
further consolidation of executive dominance and a loss of credibility as a
model of democracy abroad”.
What interventions or civic actions do the authors advocate
for reducing entrenchment?
Bolster the independence and efficacy of the courts, the
legislature, and the investigative and oversight entities to effectively
minimize abuse of power by the executive. Safeguard freedom of expression,
freedom of assembly, and diverse outlets of media to enhance public
participation and dissent.
Certify that elections are fair when they are transparent,
inclusive, and accessible, to protect against voter suppression,
gerrymandering, and other threats to the integrity of elections. Examine
reforms to entrench democracy, including restrictions on the use of vetoes or
the ability of supermajorities as a way to halt anti-democratic measures.
Develop systems of transparency and accountability for
public officials and campaign finance.
