Summary
- Democrats
aim to take Senate control in 2026 midterms. - Target
competitive races plus a few long-shot bids. - Key
battlegrounds include Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Texas. - Republicans
face challenges in some traditionally safe seats.
In 2026, more than one-third of the Senate’s seats will be
up for election; Republicans will be vying for 24 seats, while Democrats will
be defending 13. However, given that many of the Republicans running for
reelection come from states that President Trump won well in 2024, the map
presents little chances for Democrats to change seats. Meanwhile, the GOP may
have opportunities as a result of the retirement of three Senate Democrats who
are running for reelection in 2026.
Democrats would have to protect seats in several challenging
areas and flip four seats to gain a majority in the upper chamber, which
currently has 53 Republicans.
With controversial primary contests in several states and
up-and-coming candidates in a few free Senate seats, the major contests that
will probably decide who controls the Senate after 2026 are starting to take
shape.
While Texas is hosting a fierce GOP primary campaign that
Democrats hope would work in their favor, North Carolina is anticipated to host
the most costly contest.
North Carolina has generally supported Republicans in every
presidential election, with the exception of Barack Obama in 2008, the last
time the state elected a Democrat to the Senate. President Trump won the state
by more than three points in 2024.
Cooper, the longest-serving state attorney general in North
Carolina history and a two-term governor, declared his intention to run for the
Senate in July.
Days after Cooper entered the race, Republican National
Committee Chairman Michael Whatley declared his intention to run for the vacant
seat, intensifying the competition and setting the stage for what is predicted
to be one of the most costly contests of the cycle.
Despite never having run for government, Whatley was
instrumental in Mr. Trump’s reelection campaign. He’s relying on his
conservative knowledge, the president’s support, and the relationships he’s
built as RNC head.
Sen. Jon Ossoff, who is running for a second term in the
Senate after barely winning the 2020 election when the Georgia race went to a
runoff, is widely considered the most vulnerable Democrat this election
cycle.
In addition to Joe Biden becoming the first Democrat to win
Georgia in a presidential election since 1992, Ossoff’s slim victory guaranteed
a Democratic majority in the Senate. Ossoff is the only incumbent Democrat this
cycle defending a district the president won in the last election, however, as
Georgia switched again in 2024 in favor of Mr. Trump.
A crucial seat in the battleground state, which has seen
presidential contests swing from President Trump in 2016 to former President
Joe Biden in 2020 and back to Mr. Trump in 2024, became available when
Democratic Sen. Gary Peters unexpectedly announced in January that he would not
run for reelection in 2026.
With a crowded primary already under way, Democrats are
selecting from a large talent pool without the advantage that an incumbent
typically offers. Pete Buttigieg, the Transportation Secretary under the Biden
administration, thought about running for office but decided against it earlier
this year. Rep. Haley Stevens, state senator Mallory McMorrow, and former
Michigan health official Abdul El-Sayed are among the Democrats who have
entered the campaign thus far.
The 55-year-old Ernst, who was elected to the Senate in
2014, has faced criticism from Democrats for remarks she made on Medicaid cuts,
and the Republican base has blasted her for her initial hesitation to back the
confirmation of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
State Representative Josh Turek, State Senator Zach Wahls,
and Nathan Sage, executive director of the Knoxville Chamber of Commerce, are
all competing for the Democratic nomination, making the field crowded. Earlier
this month, state representative J.D. Scholten, who had also started a campaign,
bowed out and backed Turek as the Democratic Party’s best option to defeat
Ernst.
The union leader is running against GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts
in 2026 after an unexpectedly close contest the previous year in which he
defeated Harris by a wide margin. However, it is anticipated that Republicans
would be more equipped to face the challenge in the deeply red state this
time.
After former Senator Ben Sasse retired, Ricketts, one of the
wealthiest members of Congress, was appointed to the Senate in 2023. He easily
defeated Sasse in a special election last year to complete the final two years
of Sasse’s tenure.
What factors made Ohio and Nevada particularly vulnerable
for Democrats?
Ohio’s political identity has increasingly leaned toward the
Republican Party over the past couple election cycles, setting a stark contrast
from its history of being a bellwether state that closely followed the national
decisions being made across the country. Currently the balance of partisanship
in Ohio favors Republicans, creating avenues for Republican candidates to win
Ohio and lose nationally, as witnessed in 2020.
The Democrats have struggled to rekindle the connections
with working-class voters, particularly in rural areas as well as those
affected by the decline of the industrial economy, who are trending toward the
full support of Republicans.
The share of voters identifying as Democrats in Ohio has
declined, while the share of declared independent and Republican voters has
grown.
