Summary
- Texas GOP chair sees Illinois as winnable in 2026.
- Points to Trump’s improved 43.5% vote share.
- Calls Illinois a “purple state” not blue anymore.
- Emphasizes that the GOP can flip states quickly.
- Notes needed for strong candidates and campaign
efforts.
Abraham George cited Donald Trump’s 43.5%
Illinois support in the 2024 presidential election when addressing a combined
meeting of the Illinois party’s state central committee and county chairs. That
was almost five points higher than he received in his first presidential
campaign in 2016 and three points more than he received in 2020, when he lost
to Democrat Joe Biden in his first reelection attempt.
However, while Trump increased his vote total by
just over 2,000 between 2020 and 2024, the narrower margins were primarily
caused by fewer votes for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
“That’s not a blue state anymore. That’s a
purple state,”
George said.
“This state can flip to a Republican pretty fast.”
The meeting of party officials Thursday morning
was a precursor to the annual Republican Day festivities at the Illinois State
Fair, an event where the party showcases its major candidates for the next
round of elections and tries to generate enthusiasm among its core base of
voters.
The ongoing congressional redistricting debate
in his home state, which has influenced Illinois politics, was a major factor
in George’s invitation to address the gathering.
Relief for the victims of the fatal floods that
hit the state in July is one of the topics being discussed by the Texas
Legislature, which is now in a special session.
A mid-decade congressional redistricting plan
that would give the GOP at least five more seats is also being considered by
the Republican-controlled Legislature at Trump’s request. As a result, they
would now represent at least 30 of the 38 seats in the state delegation.
On Aug. 3, dozens of Democratic lawmakers left
the state, many of them taking refuge in Illinois, to stop the Texas House from
voting on that plan. Because of this, the Texas House has been unable to
assemble the two-thirds quorum needed to conduct business.
The Democrat governor of Illinois, JB Pritzker,
has publicly invited the Texas lawmakers to remain in the state. He has also
hinted that Democratic-led states like Illinois and California would redraw
their own boundaries in favor of Democrats in retaliation if Texas Republicans
carry out their redistricting plans.
However, considering how gerrymandered the Illinois
maps are already, George ridiculed Pritzker’s concern about the actions in
Texas.
“You know, Democrats, they don’t hate
gerrymandering. They hate losing,”
George told the Illinois Republicans.
“Because if you haven’t looked at your map, they love gerrymandering. I was
looking at the map of Illinois and the congressional seats. I’m like, I don’t
think this is possible in a computer system.”
Republicans have been hesitant to declare their
intentions to run for some of the higher-level positions that will be up for
election in 2026, despite the optimism that was voiced on Thursday. These
include contests for governor and every other constitutional office in the
state, all 17 congressional seats, and a U.S. Senate seat that the state’s
senior senator, Dick Durbin, is leaving empty this year.
Don Tracy, a Springfield lawyer and former state
party chairman, is one Republican who has made the decision to run for Durbin’s
U.S. Senate seat.
Speaking to reporters on Thursday, he
acknowledged that, given the Democrats’ substantial money advantage, it is a
“daunting task” for a Republican to compete for any statewide post in
Illinois.
In contrast, Illinois Democrats have stated that
a significant portion of their message will center on the Republican Party’s
shift to the right under the Trump administration, which has pushed through a
package of significant tax breaks for high-income taxpayers and sharp cuts to
social spending, as well as the deployment of military personnel on the streets
of Washington, D.C., and Los Angeles.
During his keynote address at the State Fair,
Fox News commentator Gianno Caldwell received applause from the audience when
he said that Trump’s decision to federalize policing in the nation’s capital
and deploy the National Guard “took guts.”
Tracy also denied that Trump has pursued an
extreme political agenda.
“The Trump agenda is peace, prosperity and law
and order,”
he said.
“I think most Americans, including most Illinoisans,
support that agenda.”
How credible is the Texas GOP chair’s prediction
about Illinois flipping red?
The chairman cited Donald Trump’s improved vote
share in Illinois in the 2024 presidential election (43.5%), which was a modest
gain from previous years, suggesting Illinois is becoming more of a
“purple state” than solidly blue.
He argued that gerrymandering heavily favors
Democrats, with Republicans underrepresented compared to their share of the
vote, implying potential for Republican gains if district maps were fairer.
The chairman expressed optimism based on current
political dynamics and the possibility of capitalizing on Democratic
vulnerabilities around issues like social policies.
