Key Points:
- Speaker
Mike Johnson and GOP leadership are pushing to pass a sweeping tax and
spending bill, dubbed the ‘megabill,’ before President Donald Trump’s July
4 deadline. - The
ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus is threatening to block the bill,
citing concerns over increased deficits, insufficient spending cuts, and
policy changes. - The
Senate-passed version of the bill would add an estimated $600 billion to
$761 billion to the deficit, with some analyses projecting up to $3.4
trillion over a decade. - Freedom
Caucus members object to provisions on immigration, Medicaid cuts, and the
rollback of clean energy tax credits. - GOP
moderates, particularly from swing states, are also concerned about
Medicaid cuts and their impact on state budgets. - House
leadership is relying on President Trump and the White House to persuade
hardline conservatives to support the bill. - A
procedural vote in the House has stalled, with several Republicans voting
‘no’ or withholding their votes, leaving the bill in limbo. - Protesters
have gathered outside the Capitol, voicing opposition to cuts in Medicaid
and nutrition programs. - The
bill includes major tax cuts favoring higher incomes, permanent business
tax breaks, Medicaid work requirements, and increased border security
funding. - The
outcome remains uncertain as GOP leaders race against time and internal
divisions to deliver the bill to Trump’s desk.
As reported by Sarah Ferris of Politico, Speaker Mike Johnson and his Republican leadership team are racing to pass a massive tax and
spending package—referred to as the ‘megabill’—before President Donald Trump‘s
self-imposed July 4 deadline. However, their efforts are being hampered by
fierce resistance from the House Freedom Caucus, whose members argue the
Senate-passed version would add more than $600 billion to the deficit,
violating prior budget agreements.
What Are the Main Objections from the House Freedom Caucus?
According to Ronny Reyes of the New York Post, the 32-member
Freedom Caucus has publicly declared it will not support the Senate’s version
of the bill, insisting that it fails to deliver adequate spending cuts and
instead increases the national debt by $651 billion—excluding interest, which
could nearly double that amount. The group stated on X, “That’s not
fiscal responsibility. It’s not what we agreed upon,” and demanded
significant changes to align the bill with the House’s original budget
framework.
A memo circulated by the Freedom Caucus, as reported by
Politico and The Hill, details more than a dozen Senate changes, including
deeper Medicaid cuts, higher deficit projections, and less stringent clean
energy tax credit repeals than anticipated. The memo criticizes the bill
for breaking the House’s promise of matching every dollar in tax cuts with a
dollar in spending cuts, stating, “This was not what [Senate Majority]
Leader [John] Thune and Speaker [Mike] Johnson promised”.
The Freedom Caucus also objects to:
- The
bill’s continued allowance of taxpayer-funded transgender surgeries for
adults and minors. - Failure
to fully remove undocumented immigrants from Medicaid rolls. - The
possibility for undocumented parents to open new ‘Trump Accounts.’ - Weakening
of the repeal of clean energy tax credits. - Hundreds
of billions added to the deficit.
Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) told Newsmax,
“There’s a little work left to be done, but if the president calls the
Senate back in town, we should be able to do it,” indicating ongoing
negotiations and a call for more Senate involvement.
How Are GOP Moderates Responding to the Megabill?
As reported by Politico, a separate bloc of GOP moderates
from states like Pennsylvania, New York, and North Carolina are alarmed by the
bill’s stringent cuts to state provider taxes that fund Medicaid. These
moderates, including Reps. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) and Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.), have
written to Speaker Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, expressing
their concerns about the impact on Medicaid and state budgets.
President Trump has scheduled meetings with both moderates
and fiscal hawks at the White House, attempting to bridge the gap between the
party’s factions and secure enough votes for passage.
What Is the Status of the House Vote and What Are the
Stakes?
According to reporting by the News From the States team, the
House has been at a standstill, with a crucial procedural vote left open for
hours as GOP leaders try to persuade four Republicans who voted ‘no’ and nine
others who withheld their votes. Key holdouts include Reps. Andrew Clyde
(R-Ga.), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Keith Self (R-Texas), and Victoria Spartz
(R-Ind.), while Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris has also withheld his vote.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) told Yahoo News that a large group
of fiscal conservatives is closely examining the Senate amendments and
potential executive actions, weighing whether changes could be sent back to the
Senate for further negotiation.
Speaker Johnson, quoted by Politico, admitted, “I’m not
happy” with the Senate’s changes but remains “optimistic we’re going
to land it at this point,” as he continues to negotiate with both
hardliners and moderates.
What Does the Megabill Contain and Who Benefits?
As detailed by News From the States, the bill would:
- Extend
and expand the 2017 GOP tax law, with tax cuts disproportionately
benefiting higher-income earners—the top 1% would receive cuts three times
larger than those in the bottom 60% of after-tax income. - Make
permanent certain business tax breaks for investments and research and
development. - Overhaul
Medicaid by requiring some recipients to work, participate in community
service, or attend educational programs for at least 80 hours a month. - Block
Medicaid funding to Planned Parenthood for one year, forcing enrollees to
seek alternative providers for routine healthcare. - Require
states to partially fund the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
(SNAP) if they cannot reduce error rates, impacting roughly 42 million
low-income Americans. - Increase
spending on border security and defense, including funding for the
“golden dome” missile defense system and additional southern
border barriers. - Boost
funding for federal immigration enforcement to support mass deportations,
a key Trump campaign promise. - Raise
the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, aiming to avoid another debt crisis
before the next midterm elections.
What Are the Deficit and Debt Concerns?
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the
Senate-passed bill would increase deficits by $3.4 trillion over the next
decade compared to current law. The Freedom Caucus and other deficit hawks
argue that the Senate version adds $761 billion to the deficit without
interest, and over $1.3 trillion with interest, compared to the House version
passed in May.
According to The Hill, the Freedom Caucus memo labels the
Senate bill a “fail,” criticizing both Majority Leader Thune and
Speaker Johnson for deviating from the House’s commitment to fiscal discipline.
How Is the White House Involved in the Negotiations?
Politico reports that House GOP leadership is relying on
President Trump and the White House to take the lead in persuading the Freedom
Caucus and other holdouts. “The sense is the White House needs to deliver
the Freedom Caucus — that’s the project of the day,” said an anonymous
source close to House leadership. Trump has been “working the phones
pretty consistently over the last several days,” according to a White
House official, and is expected to meet with both moderates and fiscal hawks to
address their concerns.
What Is the Public Reaction?
As reported by News From the States, protesters have
gathered outside the Capitol, carrying signs and voicing opposition to the
bill’s Medicaid and SNAP cuts, as well as the rollback of clean energy tax
credits. The public debate reflects deep divisions not only within the GOP
but across the broader electorate.
What Happens Next?
The outcome remains uncertain. Speaker Johnson has 24 to 48
hours to win over enough Republicans to pass the bill intact, as any changes
would require another Senate vote and further delay. Severe thunderstorms
in Washington are also threatening full attendance, adding another layer of
unpredictability to the proceedings.
As of late Wednesday night, the House vote remained open,
with several GOP members still undecided and the leadership working overtime to
avoid a legislative defeat that could derail President Trump’s legislative
agenda ahead of Independence Day.
